- The energy transition, electrification of transport and the rise of artificial intelligence are driving unprecedented growth in copper consumption, with demand projected to reach 39 million metric tonnes by 2040.
- Despite the increase in demand, copper production is not growing at the same pace, which could lead to a significant shortfall if there is no investment in new mining projects and recycling strategies to ensure future availability.
Booming demand
Global copper demand is experiencing significant growth driven by the energy transition, the expansion of artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure. According to BHP, an annual increase of 1 million metric tonnes is expected through to 2035, with additional demand of more than 9 million tonnes over the next decade.
BloombergNEF forecasts that annual demand for refined copper will grow 53% by 2040, reaching 39 million metric tonnes, driven by the electrification of transport and the development of sustainable infrastructure. In addition, the proliferation of data centres and AI could add up to 1 million metric tonnes more demand by 2030, exacerbating supply challenges.
Despite these increases, global refined copper production will only increase by 16% over the same period, which could lead to a significant shortfall if new mining projects are not developed. These factors position copper as a key strategic resource, with direct implications for the global economy and the sustainability of the energy future.
Copper applications in the energy transition
Renewable Energies
Renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind, require significant amounts of copper for the construction of solar panels and wind turbines, due to their conductive properties.
Electric vehicles
Electric vehicles use a considerable amount of copper in their batteries, electric motors and wiring systems. On average, an electric car contains around 60 kilograms of copper, while a vehicle with an internal combustion engine uses approximately 23 kilograms. This difference is due to the need for additional electrical components in new vehicles.
Electrical infrastructure
The modernisation and expansion of electricity grids to support renewable energy sources and growing energy demand are highly dependent on copper. Copper is the material of choice for electrical installations in buildings, infrastructure and electronic equipment due to its high conductivity.
Deficient supply
By 2030, an annual shortfall of 5 million tonnes of refined copper is expected, which could hamper global sustainability goals.
This shortfall is attributed to the difficulty in finding viable new deposits and the long time needed to develop mining projects.
Strategies to mitigate shortages
To address the gap between copper supply and demand, several strategies are being considered:
- Investments in new mining projects: Crucial to accelerate approval and development of new mines to increase production.
- Recycling and circular economy: Encouraging the recovery of copper from end-of-life products can alleviate pressure on traditional mining and reduce environmental impact.
- Technological innovation: Developing technologies that optimise the use of copper and seek alternative materials can help meet demand without compromising existing resources.
In short, copper is and will remain a key pillar in the global energy transition. Addressing the challenges related to its supply will require a combination of strategic investments, effective recycling policies and technological advances to enable more efficient and sustainable use of this valuable resource.